, “Obama the front-runner”

February 13, 2008

Barack Obama wins more primaries and appeals to a wide range of voters; Hillary Clinton is on the back foot

“Hillary Clinton is running out of good reasons for why she should lose so many different states and by such big margins. Virginia, especially, is hard to ignore. Its demographic mix is not too different from neighbouring Tennessee, which Mrs Clinton won handily on Super Tuesday. It sends over 80 delegates to the summer’s nominating convention. And although not usually considered to be a swing state, the suburbs of Washington, DC, and the capital (Richmond) are growing more Democratic, giving the party a hope of snatching it from its usual place in the Republican win column come November.

Moreover, Mr Obama won nearly every significant group: among men and women, church-goers and church-avoiders, liberals and moderates, the well and the less educated. He nearly tied with her among white voters and took 90% of blacks. Most polls had predicted Mr Obama would win; none said that he would win by 28 percentage points, “Mitt Romney throws in the towel”

February 8, 2008

Where it went wrong for Mitt Romney—and right for John McCain

“Republicans like their leaders to be steadfast. So social conservatives shunned Mr Romney for Mike Huckabee, who won a clutch of southern states on ‘Super Tuesday’. Moderate conservatives and independents joined the reinvigorated Mr McCain. Now Mr McCain’s biggest problem will be convincing Republicans that he is truly one of them and getting them out to vote, without alienating the independents he has always depended on